* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 09/30/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 23 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 28 28 31 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 22 26 25 24 23 20 24 23 18 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 22 37 45 44 57 58 60 54 49 24 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 0 -1 0 -4 -5 -4 -5 -9 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 251 269 251 247 264 274 275 282 297 308 314 328 329 SST (C) 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.4 28.0 28.1 28.7 29.1 29.3 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 137 131 129 127 127 126 135 138 148 156 159 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 118 110 105 103 104 106 115 121 133 145 150 142 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -53.9 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 5 3 2 2 2 4 4 7 7 9 9 700-500 MB RH 64 63 60 54 49 46 45 49 48 51 48 49 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 5 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -18 -1 0 -36 -34 -72 -83 -101 -61 -42 -37 -12 200 MB DIV 4 9 18 16 -11 10 0 -2 -15 -12 -14 -59 -41 700-850 TADV 7 7 1 -9 3 -2 0 -9 -16 -14 -30 -3 -14 LAND (KM) -53 -22 16 53 53 46 -27 -43 89 223 200 287 -50 LAT (DEG N) 28.0 28.9 29.6 29.9 29.9 30.0 29.7 29.5 29.0 28.3 27.3 26.4 25.7 LONG(DEG W) 81.1 81.2 81.0 80.7 80.7 80.8 81.5 82.7 84.7 87.2 90.6 94.3 97.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 5 2 0 2 5 7 10 13 17 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 29 18 15 30 30 29 11 17 17 27 41 55 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 28. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. -1. -13. -26. -39. -50. -55. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 1. -6. -16. -25. -30. -29. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 28.0 81.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 09/30/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.12 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.16 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.57 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 78.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.86 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 12.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 1.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992017 INVEST 09/30/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 09/30/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 26 28 28 31 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 20 19 23 25 25 28 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 18 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT