* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 09/30/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 37 38 37 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 30 33 37 38 37 28 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 26 29 31 31 31 28 23 23 24 20 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 17 24 37 47 50 53 54 55 52 38 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 1 1 -3 -5 -5 0 -3 -6 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 227 259 272 253 248 274 273 281 287 306 314 324 326 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 27.9 27.7 27.9 28.3 28.6 28.3 28.3 28.5 29.3 29.6 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 135 131 133 137 143 139 140 144 159 165 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 124 116 110 111 113 119 117 121 128 149 161 169 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.8 -54.2 -53.9 -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 3 4 3 1 3 3 5 5 8 8 11 700-500 MB RH 63 62 62 58 54 46 47 46 50 51 52 51 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -23 -19 0 -2 -36 -51 -79 -53 -70 -33 -2 1 200 MB DIV 10 10 5 11 6 -25 -7 -5 -16 -42 -12 -44 -62 700-850 TADV 2 8 8 -1 -13 -8 -12 -5 -5 -17 -20 -25 3 LAND (KM) -49 -29 20 68 128 187 146 33 -78 108 377 432 326 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 28.4 29.4 30.1 30.3 30.0 29.3 28.9 28.5 27.7 26.5 25.0 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 80.8 80.9 80.9 80.6 80.0 79.3 79.4 80.5 81.8 83.9 86.7 90.5 94.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 6 5 3 5 5 8 11 17 20 21 HEAT CONTENT 36 24 25 33 44 57 62 33 26 25 109 41 76 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 10 CX,CY: -1/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 22. 26. 29. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. -1. -12. -23. -34. -45. -51. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -4. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 12. 13. 12. 3. -6. -16. -23. -24. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 27.4 80.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 09/30/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.28 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 32.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.21 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.37 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.58 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.18 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 87.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.85 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 11.8% 9.7% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 4.6% 2.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 5.5% 4.1% 2.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992017 INVEST 09/30/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 09/30/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 30 33 37 38 37 28 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 28 31 35 36 35 26 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 29 28 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 20 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT