* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 09/29/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 39 35 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 38 31 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 27 25 30 31 31 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 19 14 13 18 39 50 60 63 70 66 69 67 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -3 -2 -1 0 0 0 -5 -6 -9 -5 -13 SHEAR DIR 218 219 250 264 261 273 277 280 289 298 302 314 320 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.3 26.4 25.4 24.6 24.1 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 145 143 138 136 130 126 116 106 99 96 94 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 130 126 124 117 116 110 105 97 89 84 81 79 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.2 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 4 6 1 2 0 2 0 3 0 4 700-500 MB RH 62 62 60 59 58 50 51 51 53 46 44 42 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 4 5 5 7 6 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -3 0 1 22 -36 -39 -111 -103 -160 -156 -197 -162 200 MB DIV 15 8 4 4 19 -6 -2 10 7 -25 -6 -12 -37 700-850 TADV 4 4 10 8 9 21 6 11 14 -4 0 -23 4 LAND (KM) 22 18 2 26 51 40 -33 -135 -221 -333 -427 -476 -490 LAT (DEG N) 25.7 26.5 27.3 28.1 28.8 29.6 30.6 31.7 32.6 33.7 34.5 34.8 34.8 LONG(DEG W) 81.7 82.2 82.6 83.0 83.3 84.4 85.8 86.6 87.3 88.0 88.7 89.5 90.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 6 8 7 5 6 6 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 33 20 18 20 28 24 20 11 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 21. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 1. -8. -20. -33. -47. -59. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 14. 10. 3. -6. -18. -29. -41. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 25.7 81.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 09/29/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.52 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.15 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.38 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.65 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.19 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 89.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.85 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 14.2% 11.4% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 7.4% 4.3% 1.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 7.2% 5.2% 3.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992017 INVEST 09/29/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 09/29/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 36 38 31 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 33 35 28 25 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 30 23 20 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT