* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 09/29/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 25 27 33 36 37 28 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 22 22 26 32 35 35 28 27 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 21 24 25 23 22 25 26 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 18 13 12 23 29 44 53 62 64 59 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -5 -5 -7 -2 SHEAR DIR 232 210 213 243 255 254 283 279 288 284 300 304 319 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.3 25.7 24.1 22.9 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 148 145 143 137 138 135 127 111 98 89 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 132 129 125 122 116 118 115 109 95 85 77 73 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 -54.9 -55.6 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 7 4 5 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 700-500 MB RH 64 63 63 61 61 55 50 52 51 49 45 43 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 6 6 6 7 7 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -26 -5 -3 -5 2 -44 -58 -109 -121 -193 -141 -143 200 MB DIV 15 21 3 16 -7 0 -2 1 -8 -13 -6 17 -26 700-850 TADV 4 4 3 10 7 1 2 3 3 16 1 17 -1 LAND (KM) 22 14 13 -7 7 51 49 50 -72 -270 -477 -648 -671 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.8 26.6 27.3 28.1 28.9 29.3 30.0 31.1 32.8 34.7 36.4 36.7 LONG(DEG W) 81.3 81.8 82.2 82.5 82.8 83.4 85.1 87.0 88.6 89.6 90.0 89.5 88.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 5 9 9 9 9 10 6 2 HEAT CONTENT 26 31 13 9 30 28 12 14 12 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 6. 0. -9. -20. -33. -44. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -5. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 7. 13. 16. 17. 8. -2. -13. -20. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 25.0 81.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 09/29/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.14 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.37 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.72 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 71.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.86 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 10.6% 6.4% 3.1% 1.9% 1.9% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.5% 2.1% 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992017 INVEST 09/29/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 09/29/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 22 22 26 32 35 35 28 27 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 20 19 21 21 25 31 34 34 27 26 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 20 26 29 29 22 21 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT