* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 09/29/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 29 37 37 32 26 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 21 23 24 33 34 29 23 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 23 24 29 28 25 21 17 22 21 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 8 8 14 15 23 39 42 52 53 60 58 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 -1 -4 2 4 -1 -2 -3 -2 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 253 251 209 219 251 254 266 272 278 282 294 298 304 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.4 27.9 28.3 28.3 28.0 27.4 27.9 28.0 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 150 145 142 134 137 136 134 128 136 138 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 136 133 128 124 112 112 109 111 109 118 122 129 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.4 -54.5 -54.2 -53.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 8 6 5 2 3 2 4 3 6 4 700-500 MB RH 65 64 64 64 63 59 52 46 43 46 48 53 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 4 5 6 7 10 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -43 -37 -20 -20 8 -30 -35 -84 -85 -105 -88 -97 200 MB DIV 25 15 19 9 12 17 18 1 -5 -17 -12 -17 -20 700-850 TADV 1 3 3 5 13 7 13 1 1 -8 -12 -18 -35 LAND (KM) 101 -3 -53 -53 -39 69 168 187 133 20 -30 58 11 LAT (DEG N) 24.4 25.3 26.3 27.3 28.3 29.8 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.6 29.0 LONG(DEG W) 80.2 80.5 80.7 80.8 81.0 80.5 79.5 79.3 79.9 81.1 83.3 86.0 89.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 10 10 6 2 1 4 7 11 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 66 72 57 37 24 31 55 55 46 10 17 13 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 6. -0. -9. -20. -31. -41. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 4. -1. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 9. 17. 17. 12. 6. -0. -8. -15. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 24.4 80.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 09/29/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 51.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.33 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.75 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 72.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.86 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 11.7% 6.5% 2.7% 1.2% 1.5% 1.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 3.9% 2.2% 0.9% 999.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992017 INVEST 09/29/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 09/29/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 19 21 23 24 33 34 29 23 16 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 24 33 34 29 23 16 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 19 28 29 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT