* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 09/29/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 29 38 42 42 36 24 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 21 20 23 24 31 35 35 27 27 27 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 22 24 28 29 28 23 25 26 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 12 6 10 15 19 35 41 47 53 60 58 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 5 3 -1 -2 0 0 2 0 -5 -9 -7 SHEAR DIR 235 244 206 182 209 250 253 268 267 282 287 303 307 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.5 27.7 27.8 27.5 26.7 26.4 25.6 24.8 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 150 147 143 131 130 127 120 118 109 102 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 137 133 129 124 111 106 106 102 101 93 87 82 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -53.5 -53.6 -54.1 -54.3 -54.9 -55.7 -55.8 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 3 3 0 1 0 1 0 2 700-500 MB RH 66 63 61 60 62 60 53 47 46 45 41 38 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 4 5 6 10 10 10 8 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -43 -54 -38 -18 -12 1 -51 -74 -109 -136 -168 -193 200 MB DIV 23 22 6 15 19 9 8 -9 17 7 -25 -23 -27 700-850 TADV 0 3 7 5 4 8 0 4 9 12 14 6 13 LAND (KM) 132 22 -32 -51 -35 16 98 85 -26 -230 -404 -536 -654 LAT (DEG N) 24.2 25.2 26.1 27.1 28.0 29.6 30.2 30.5 31.2 32.3 33.9 35.3 36.4 LONG(DEG W) 79.9 80.2 80.5 80.7 80.9 81.0 80.3 80.5 81.7 83.5 84.7 85.7 86.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 7 2 4 8 10 8 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 69 30 66 56 27 13 30 24 12 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):349/ 10 CX,CY: -1/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 6. 1. -7. -17. -29. -39. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 6. 6. 3. -2. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 9. 18. 22. 22. 16. 4. -4. -12. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 24.2 79.9 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 09/29/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 49.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.32 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.28 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.76 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 74.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.86 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 7.9% 4.3% 1.8% 1.5% 3.5% 2.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 2.7% 1.5% 0.6% 999.0% 1.2% 0.8% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992017 INVEST 09/29/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 09/29/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 20 23 24 31 35 35 27 27 27 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 20 19 18 21 22 29 33 33 25 25 25 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 20 27 31 31 23 23 23 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT