* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 09/28/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 24 27 36 45 46 40 28 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 22 21 23 25 35 35 27 27 27 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 20 22 25 29 29 24 26 26 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 10 6 9 19 24 42 41 53 57 65 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 3 5 3 -5 1 0 0 0 -5 -8 -11 SHEAR DIR 242 230 234 191 173 242 253 269 276 287 287 305 307 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.6 27.9 27.4 27.5 26.9 26.8 26.1 25.3 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 157 153 153 150 145 135 126 126 122 121 114 107 99 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 138 138 134 128 116 104 103 103 104 97 90 84 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -53.2 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.7 -55.4 -55.8 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 8 4 4 1 1 0 2 0 3 700-500 MB RH 67 66 63 61 60 62 57 48 47 45 45 39 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 1 3 4 5 5 9 13 12 9 5 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -33 -42 -57 -38 -29 2 -54 -53 -114 -115 -172 -164 200 MB DIV 31 27 20 13 17 17 18 6 16 8 -6 -31 -7 700-850 TADV 3 1 4 8 6 12 4 11 3 13 19 5 18 LAND (KM) 64 122 22 -34 -53 -15 43 64 -22 -183 -330 -449 -594 LAT (DEG N) 23.3 24.3 25.2 26.3 27.3 29.1 30.3 30.4 30.8 31.6 33.1 34.5 35.9 LONG(DEG W) 79.6 79.9 80.2 80.5 80.8 81.2 80.9 80.7 81.7 83.3 84.6 85.6 86.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 9 4 2 7 9 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 64 69 30 58 37 26 22 23 8 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 10 CX,CY: -1/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 3. -4. -13. -24. -36. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 6. 11. 10. 6. -0. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 16. 25. 26. 20. 8. -1. -9. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 23.3 79.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 09/28/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 51.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.33 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.28 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.79 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 69.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.87 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 8.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 6.1% 2.9% 0.8% 0.4% 1.8% 1.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 2.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992017 INVEST 09/28/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 09/28/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 22 21 23 25 35 35 27 27 27 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 20 19 21 20 22 24 34 34 26 26 26 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 15 17 19 29 29 21 21 21 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT