* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 08/12/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 40 45 45 49 53 55 56 51 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 40 45 45 49 53 55 56 51 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 30 34 37 38 40 43 47 51 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 3 7 12 18 20 21 8 13 17 24 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 0 -3 -4 -5 0 -5 -3 3 0 0 6 SHEAR DIR 137 171 232 9 34 25 37 21 14 253 238 242 243 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.7 27.9 28.2 27.3 26.3 20.8 18.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 157 159 159 155 147 137 143 134 124 90 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 138 141 144 143 136 127 118 128 124 116 85 79 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.4 -54.5 -54.9 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 12 13 13 12 11 9 7 6 4 2 700-500 MB RH 51 51 48 49 48 49 55 60 59 52 45 43 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 7 6 5 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -42 -60 -54 -56 -56 -37 -53 -21 -17 -5 -13 -9 200 MB DIV -22 -25 -19 -16 0 19 16 2 42 19 62 59 56 700-850 TADV 1 -3 -4 -2 1 0 2 -3 9 -6 -8 29 32 LAND (KM) 424 473 545 655 776 787 614 534 679 685 782 721 1223 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.0 24.7 25.7 26.9 29.0 31.1 33.3 35.7 37.8 39.7 42.3 45.5 LONG(DEG W) 69.5 70.1 70.7 71.1 71.5 71.7 71.6 70.7 68.1 62.4 54.8 46.4 37.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 10 12 12 10 11 13 21 29 33 36 37 HEAT CONTENT 41 43 40 34 36 25 34 25 19 5 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 21. 25. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. 1. -3. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 20. 20. 24. 28. 30. 31. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.5 69.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 08/12/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.88 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 38.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.25 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.76 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.78 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.06 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 197.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.74 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 18.6% 14.6% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 15.5% 0.0% Logistic: 7.4% 37.3% 27.5% 15.6% 3.9% 21.3% 32.3% 42.9% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 1.3% Consensus: 4.9% 18.7% 14.0% 8.2% 1.3% 7.2% 16.0% 14.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992017 INVEST 08/12/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 08/12/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 34 40 45 45 49 53 55 56 51 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 37 42 42 46 50 52 53 48 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 32 37 37 41 45 47 48 43 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 28 28 32 36 38 39 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT