* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 08/12/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 44 45 50 55 64 61 52 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 44 45 50 55 64 61 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 37 39 41 45 52 54 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 4 3 9 17 22 17 9 15 23 42 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 -3 -5 -3 -3 0 5 3 4 3 SHEAR DIR 291 95 181 266 8 32 39 26 360 248 242 235 230 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.3 28.9 28.0 28.1 27.8 26.6 16.7 17.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 154 157 159 157 150 138 141 140 127 79 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 136 138 141 144 140 131 118 125 130 120 76 76 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.1 -54.1 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -54.4 -54.0 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.1 -0.4 -0.1 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 13 13 12 13 11 10 8 7 5 2 0 700-500 MB RH 53 53 52 50 50 50 55 61 62 58 54 49 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 2 4 5 11 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR -50 -45 -47 -58 -57 -47 -44 -33 -16 -22 2 2 -7 200 MB DIV -7 -25 -16 -11 -20 -5 20 30 32 46 64 64 24 700-850 TADV 2 1 -3 -2 -2 1 0 1 6 -3 25 10 -20 LAND (KM) 387 425 486 570 677 839 643 520 611 651 643 523 1047 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.5 24.1 24.9 25.9 28.3 30.5 32.7 35.0 37.7 40.3 43.5 46.4 LONG(DEG W) 68.7 69.4 69.9 70.4 71.0 71.7 71.9 71.3 69.2 64.4 57.0 48.2 39.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 10 12 12 11 12 19 28 34 37 34 HEAT CONTENT 40 41 41 38 35 29 23 24 14 25 19 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 22. 25. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 1. -6. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -10. -9. -8. -1. -0. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 19. 20. 25. 30. 39. 36. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.0 68.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 08/12/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.94 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 39.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.25 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.72 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.23 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.77 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 187.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.75 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 8.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 16.9% 13.1% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.2% 0.0% Logistic: 6.3% 33.4% 22.7% 10.8% 2.3% 17.7% 28.1% 42.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 1.4% Consensus: 4.1% 16.8% 12.0% 6.3% 0.8% 6.0% 14.6% 14.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992017 INVEST 08/12/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 08/12/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 33 39 44 45 50 55 64 61 52 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 37 42 43 48 53 62 59 50 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 32 37 38 43 48 57 54 45 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 29 30 35 40 49 46 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT