* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 08/12/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 38 43 46 47 51 59 72 73 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 38 43 46 47 51 59 72 73 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 40 43 45 51 58 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 3 3 0 12 19 22 22 13 10 7 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 2 -4 -5 -2 -2 -1 2 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 274 308 53 126 275 45 38 44 30 23 300 275 287 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.8 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.1 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 154 154 156 157 155 149 139 140 141 131 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 139 138 137 139 140 135 128 119 124 130 122 102 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.8 -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.4 -54.2 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 9 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 53 53 53 52 51 51 52 56 61 61 59 49 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 3 3 5 8 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -51 -47 -51 -62 -57 -52 -41 -52 -28 -19 -4 -20 200 MB DIV -9 -16 -25 -11 -11 3 -3 21 -5 45 17 57 36 700-850 TADV -3 2 0 -3 -4 0 0 2 0 18 27 19 36 LAND (KM) 382 382 429 479 555 721 779 607 534 661 772 866 817 LAT (DEG N) 22.8 23.1 23.6 24.1 24.8 26.6 28.7 30.7 32.6 34.7 36.7 38.2 39.8 LONG(DEG W) 68.3 69.3 70.1 70.6 71.1 72.0 72.4 72.2 71.2 68.7 63.6 56.6 49.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 8 9 11 10 10 12 18 27 29 28 HEAT CONTENT 39 43 46 47 40 46 27 23 25 16 13 11 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 18. 22. 25. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -9. -5. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 18. 21. 22. 26. 34. 47. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.8 68.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 08/12/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.96 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 43.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.28 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.57 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.76 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 182.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.76 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 18.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.81 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 18.9% 14.9% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.4% 0.0% Logistic: 6.5% 39.4% 29.0% 21.0% 7.6% 17.1% 22.7% 36.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 1.2% Consensus: 4.5% 19.5% 14.6% 10.1% 2.5% 5.8% 13.1% 12.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992017 INVEST 08/12/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 08/12/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 33 38 43 46 47 51 59 72 73 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 36 41 44 45 49 57 70 71 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 31 36 39 40 44 52 65 66 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 27 30 31 35 43 56 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT