* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 08/12/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 40 45 49 50 55 58 65 64 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 40 45 49 50 55 58 65 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 41 44 46 48 53 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 4 3 4 9 16 22 19 13 12 21 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 0 -3 -2 -3 -2 0 4 1 7 SHEAR DIR 264 269 305 60 111 42 43 38 29 7 279 254 244 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.3 28.9 28.0 28.2 27.6 26.5 15.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 153 154 156 159 157 151 138 143 137 126 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 139 138 138 139 143 139 131 120 127 126 118 75 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 -54.6 -54.4 -54.5 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -54.1 -54.2 -55.1 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.7 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 12 13 13 12 13 11 10 8 6 4 1 700-500 MB RH 54 54 53 54 52 50 51 55 58 60 57 57 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 4 4 3 6 6 10 13 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -38 -47 -41 -46 -53 -49 -34 -34 -22 -28 -20 -28 200 MB DIV 17 -3 -12 -28 -9 -8 -2 28 31 35 56 59 63 700-850 TADV -8 -4 1 0 -2 -2 1 0 4 18 5 12 0 LAND (KM) 422 386 384 442 503 688 818 657 567 682 653 647 485 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 22.8 23.1 23.7 24.3 26.0 28.2 30.4 32.7 35.1 37.8 40.4 44.2 LONG(DEG W) 67.0 68.2 69.2 69.9 70.4 71.4 71.9 71.8 70.7 68.4 63.6 56.7 48.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 8 8 11 11 11 13 19 27 33 40 HEAT CONTENT 38 39 42 43 43 38 29 24 26 15 13 16 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 29. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 3. 0. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -7. -8. -3. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 20. 24. 25. 30. 33. 40. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.5 67.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 08/12/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.91 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 41.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.26 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.66 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.77 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.11 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 178.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.76 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 14.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 18.3% 14.2% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 17.1% 0.0% Logistic: 6.6% 37.9% 26.8% 15.8% 4.7% 23.7% 27.7% 38.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 6.2% Consensus: 4.4% 18.8% 13.7% 8.2% 1.6% 8.1% 15.0% 14.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992017 INVEST 08/12/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 08/12/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 34 40 45 49 50 55 58 65 64 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 37 42 46 47 52 55 62 61 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 32 37 41 42 47 50 57 56 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 29 33 34 39 42 49 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT