* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 08/11/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 39 43 47 48 49 50 53 54 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 39 43 47 48 49 50 53 54 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 32 35 39 41 42 42 43 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 6 8 6 6 16 22 23 26 15 4 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -3 -3 -1 -2 -7 -1 -4 -1 2 2 SHEAR DIR 296 284 297 324 26 34 53 43 48 38 43 303 241 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.0 28.2 27.3 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 151 151 153 157 157 153 149 138 144 134 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 140 138 136 137 141 140 133 129 119 130 125 97 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 -54.3 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 -54.6 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 13 12 13 13 13 13 12 11 8 7 4 700-500 MB RH 53 53 53 53 55 51 50 52 55 56 57 58 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -22 -34 -44 -43 -59 -61 -52 -37 -47 -34 -16 24 200 MB DIV 10 12 -6 -15 -31 -9 4 18 15 10 56 53 88 700-850 TADV -3 -7 -4 0 0 -5 0 1 2 1 2 10 -9 LAND (KM) 400 377 333 348 397 555 740 751 584 553 725 674 563 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.3 22.4 22.8 23.3 24.8 26.9 28.9 30.9 32.8 35.2 37.9 41.7 LONG(DEG W) 66.2 67.5 68.5 69.4 70.0 71.1 72.2 72.6 72.3 70.8 67.9 62.4 54.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 9 8 9 10 11 10 11 13 22 30 36 HEAT CONTENT 42 39 41 45 47 40 49 27 22 26 16 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 5. 1. -2. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 14. 18. 22. 23. 24. 25. 28. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.1 66.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 08/11/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.84 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 42.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.27 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.74 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.77 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.11 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 177.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.76 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 29.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.71 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 17.7% 13.6% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.6% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 15.9% 9.6% 2.6% 0.5% 6.2% 15.0% 22.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% Consensus: 3.2% 11.2% 7.7% 3.5% 0.2% 2.1% 10.9% 7.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992017 INVEST 08/11/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 08/11/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 33 39 43 47 48 49 50 53 54 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 37 41 45 46 47 48 51 52 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 32 36 40 41 42 43 46 47 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 27 31 32 33 34 37 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT