* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 08/11/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 40 44 47 48 49 50 53 52 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 40 44 47 48 49 50 53 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 29 32 35 38 39 40 40 41 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 9 8 9 10 6 20 25 25 19 13 16 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 -2 -3 -1 -5 -5 -3 -2 -2 2 3 SHEAR DIR 299 302 285 294 320 13 29 48 44 23 358 288 273 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.0 28.2 27.4 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 151 153 154 157 159 153 149 138 143 135 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 139 137 140 141 142 143 133 128 121 128 124 113 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.7 -54.7 -54.9 -54.9 -54.7 -54.6 -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 -54.1 -54.4 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 13 13 12 13 13 13 11 9 7 7 3 700-500 MB RH 50 52 52 50 50 50 47 50 55 56 56 49 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 7 6 6 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -23 -28 -36 -43 -47 -65 -38 -44 -38 -24 -27 -8 200 MB DIV 11 16 11 0 -21 -17 -12 -10 22 -6 36 56 57 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -8 -4 -1 -3 -2 1 0 6 6 1 21 LAND (KM) 417 426 466 460 467 608 800 742 565 518 709 694 689 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.3 22.7 23.0 23.6 25.2 27.1 29.1 30.9 33.0 35.1 37.6 40.2 LONG(DEG W) 64.3 65.4 66.3 67.2 68.2 69.9 71.4 72.4 72.6 71.1 68.1 62.8 56.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 10 11 11 12 9 10 14 20 27 30 HEAT CONTENT 46 39 36 37 37 40 37 28 24 20 10 12 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 6. 2. -0. -3. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 15. 20. 22. 23. 24. 25. 28. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 21.9 64.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 08/11/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.72 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 39.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.25 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.82 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.78 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.16 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 197.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.74 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 32.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.68 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 17.6% 13.3% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.6% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 16.0% 9.2% 2.4% 0.5% 7.7% 17.5% 23.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 3.2% 11.2% 7.5% 3.4% 0.2% 2.6% 11.4% 7.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992017 INVEST 08/11/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 08/11/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 34 40 44 47 48 49 50 53 52 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 38 42 45 46 47 48 51 50 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 33 37 40 41 42 43 46 45 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 28 31 32 33 34 37 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT