* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 08/11/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 38 45 50 50 52 54 55 54 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 38 45 50 50 52 54 55 54 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 27 29 32 37 41 44 45 46 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 21 15 9 10 9 4 17 20 21 17 22 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -1 -1 -5 -3 -4 -3 -2 0 3 2 SHEAR DIR 275 289 304 291 280 313 334 18 32 27 321 294 278 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.4 28.9 28.3 28.0 28.0 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 150 151 151 154 160 160 151 142 140 142 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 139 138 138 138 141 145 144 131 123 125 130 125 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.7 -54.9 -54.8 -54.7 -54.9 -54.7 -54.6 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 13 13 9 8 6 6 700-500 MB RH 49 50 51 54 53 53 51 48 54 58 56 55 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -31 -25 -22 -21 -33 -44 -47 -47 -43 -40 -36 -21 200 MB DIV 4 -2 5 9 7 -16 -7 -14 -4 29 13 27 42 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -1 -2 -6 -1 -1 -3 3 2 15 15 6 LAND (KM) 489 438 416 424 455 523 680 891 654 490 598 730 733 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.4 21.8 22.2 22.6 23.9 25.8 27.9 30.1 32.3 34.7 36.9 39.1 LONG(DEG W) 62.0 63.1 64.1 65.0 65.9 67.6 69.3 71.1 72.3 72.1 69.4 64.6 57.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 12 13 13 11 13 19 26 30 HEAT CONTENT 42 42 47 41 36 35 41 34 25 18 12 28 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 29. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -4. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 20. 25. 25. 27. 29. 30. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 21.0 62.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 08/11/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.54 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 41.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.27 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.70 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.27 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.77 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.16 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 195.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.74 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 31.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.68 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 14.7% 11.1% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 15.2% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 6.7% 3.7% 0.9% 0.4% 3.4% 9.7% 17.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 7.2% 4.9% 2.5% 0.1% 1.1% 8.3% 5.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992017 INVEST 08/11/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 08/11/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 32 38 45 50 50 52 54 55 54 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 30 36 43 48 48 50 52 53 52 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 32 39 44 44 46 48 49 48 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 31 36 36 38 40 41 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT