* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 08/10/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 49 50 51 51 51 51 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 49 50 51 51 51 51 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 27 30 34 38 42 43 43 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 21 24 18 10 13 9 12 21 21 20 21 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 0 -3 -6 -5 -5 -3 -4 0 0 5 SHEAR DIR 280 270 288 300 301 293 329 337 28 16 359 343 302 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.1 28.7 27.9 28.2 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 150 150 152 156 162 154 147 137 143 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 138 138 138 137 140 144 149 137 126 119 128 122 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.8 -54.7 -55.0 -54.9 -54.7 -54.3 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 11 12 13 13 14 13 12 9 7 5 700-500 MB RH 49 48 49 50 53 53 51 50 53 56 59 57 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 6 6 5 5 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -32 -33 -21 -16 -23 -34 -48 -46 -50 -42 -63 -47 200 MB DIV 6 1 -15 1 17 -2 -9 -8 9 -6 26 -3 34 700-850 TADV 4 -4 -3 0 -3 -3 0 -3 0 1 9 11 1 LAND (KM) 571 498 436 408 416 500 616 808 760 543 470 693 681 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.4 20.7 21.2 21.8 23.0 24.9 27.0 29.3 31.4 33.6 35.7 37.9 LONG(DEG W) 60.6 61.5 62.4 63.3 64.1 65.8 67.8 69.8 71.7 72.3 71.3 67.8 62.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 10 12 13 15 13 10 15 21 27 HEAT CONTENT 56 48 42 43 47 34 32 41 29 22 11 11 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 17. 24. 25. 26. 26. 26. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 20.1 60.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 08/10/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.44 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 47.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.30 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.79 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.76 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.15 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 202.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.74 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 42.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.58 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 15.2% 11.4% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 14.5% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 10.5% 6.4% 2.2% 1.4% 6.1% 11.3% 23.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 3.2% 8.6% 6.0% 2.9% 0.5% 2.0% 8.6% 7.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992017 INVEST 08/10/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 08/10/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 49 50 51 51 51 51 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 34 40 47 48 49 49 49 49 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 36 43 44 45 45 45 45 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 28 35 36 37 37 37 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT