* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 08/10/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 28 32 37 43 46 47 48 50 51 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 28 32 37 43 46 47 48 50 51 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 25 26 29 32 36 38 40 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 20 22 24 20 10 14 10 22 19 23 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 0 0 -3 -5 -5 -5 -2 -4 0 2 SHEAR DIR 282 284 279 289 302 305 323 338 1 33 24 351 310 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.0 28.6 27.9 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 150 150 150 152 154 158 162 152 145 137 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 140 138 139 138 139 143 145 147 132 124 120 127 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -54.8 -55.0 -54.8 -54.6 -54.2 -54.2 -53.9 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 11 9 6 700-500 MB RH 47 49 49 50 54 54 53 52 51 54 58 61 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 3 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -33 -34 -30 -20 -21 -33 -48 -47 -45 -36 -28 -34 200 MB DIV -19 3 1 -8 -1 2 -20 -1 -14 -28 0 9 40 700-850 TADV 4 1 -5 -4 -1 -5 -1 -3 -2 0 -2 15 5 LAND (KM) 616 532 447 381 344 395 502 641 844 693 486 433 675 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.1 20.3 20.5 20.9 22.0 23.4 25.4 27.4 29.5 31.4 33.5 35.7 LONG(DEG W) 60.0 61.0 62.0 62.9 63.9 65.3 67.1 68.9 71.0 72.6 73.2 71.8 68.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 10 12 13 14 11 10 15 20 HEAT CONTENT 62 53 45 41 47 42 36 41 35 28 24 9 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 18. 21. 22. 23. 25. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.6 60.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 08/10/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.29 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 49.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.32 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.69 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.77 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.12 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 201.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.74 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 52.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.47 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 14.8% 11.3% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 13.1% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 3.2% 1.8% 0.4% 0.4% 1.6% 4.7% 17.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 6.0% 4.4% 2.4% 0.1% 0.5% 5.9% 5.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992017 INVEST 08/10/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 08/10/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 26 28 32 37 43 46 47 48 50 51 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 27 31 36 42 45 46 47 49 50 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 23 27 32 38 41 42 43 45 46 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 26 32 35 36 37 39 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT