* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 08/10/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 32 37 42 48 49 50 51 52 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 32 37 42 48 49 50 51 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 24 25 28 32 36 40 43 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 23 19 22 25 10 10 9 11 21 22 20 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -1 0 -2 -5 -5 -4 -2 -1 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 278 283 281 274 289 312 296 342 329 19 24 11 346 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.4 28.8 28.0 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 150 150 150 149 152 156 161 160 149 138 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 139 138 138 138 136 140 143 147 142 127 121 128 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -54.9 -55.0 -54.8 -54.6 -54.3 -54.0 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 10 9 700-500 MB RH 45 46 48 49 51 56 54 53 50 52 56 60 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -33 -34 -32 -22 -10 -22 -35 -48 -44 -50 -26 -30 200 MB DIV -20 -15 2 6 -2 20 11 -5 0 9 6 52 17 700-850 TADV 4 4 2 -6 -4 0 -4 0 -1 0 3 4 13 LAND (KM) 732 628 551 474 391 373 457 606 776 893 685 636 817 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.7 20.1 20.3 20.4 21.4 22.6 24.5 26.6 28.8 31.0 33.1 35.2 LONG(DEG W) 58.8 59.9 60.8 61.7 62.7 64.2 65.6 67.1 68.7 70.2 70.7 69.6 66.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 9 9 8 11 12 13 13 10 15 20 HEAT CONTENT 48 62 56 48 42 48 35 33 44 35 25 24 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. -1. -4. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.2 58.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 08/10/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.29 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 51.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.33 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.69 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.77 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.11 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 209.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.73 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 69.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.31 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 15.9% 12.1% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 2.8% 1.6% 0.4% 0.3% 1.5% 4.6% 15.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 6.3% 4.6% 2.5% 0.1% 0.5% 1.5% 5.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992017 INVEST 08/10/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 08/10/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 28 32 37 42 48 49 50 51 52 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 31 36 41 47 48 49 50 51 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 27 32 37 43 44 45 46 47 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 25 30 36 37 38 39 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT