* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 08/10/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 32 38 45 51 55 57 57 57 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 32 38 45 51 55 57 57 57 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 33 39 44 49 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 22 21 18 20 17 6 8 6 15 18 26 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -6 -5 -4 -2 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 274 281 288 286 278 306 277 309 303 349 13 12 346 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.0 28.2 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 148 149 149 150 150 154 158 162 152 141 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 139 139 138 136 137 137 143 144 146 133 122 125 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -54.6 -54.6 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 11 10 700-500 MB RH 45 47 48 49 51 55 54 54 51 50 52 58 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -33 -26 -28 -28 -15 -18 -24 -29 -40 -42 -37 -16 200 MB DIV -7 -11 -3 6 9 10 24 -17 5 -8 0 17 40 700-850 TADV 6 4 5 4 -4 0 -5 0 -3 -1 1 4 15 LAND (KM) 833 729 630 561 503 411 441 577 703 899 754 607 721 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.9 19.3 19.8 20.1 20.9 22.1 23.7 25.7 27.8 30.1 32.3 34.9 LONG(DEG W) 57.8 58.8 59.8 60.6 61.3 62.9 64.2 65.9 67.7 69.5 70.7 70.5 68.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 8 7 9 10 13 13 13 11 13 19 HEAT CONTENT 33 46 60 58 52 41 44 33 31 44 27 24 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 18. 22. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -3. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 20. 26. 30. 32. 32. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.4 57.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 08/10/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.38 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 49.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.32 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.78 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.09 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.76 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.13 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 209.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.73 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 52.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.47 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 13.1% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.4% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 8.5% 5.3% 2.0% 1.2% 3.2% 10.4% 34.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 3.2% 7.2% 5.0% 0.7% 0.4% 1.1% 8.0% 11.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992017 INVEST 08/10/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 08/10/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 28 32 38 45 51 55 57 57 57 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 31 37 44 50 54 56 56 56 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 27 33 40 46 50 52 52 52 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 26 33 39 43 45 45 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT