* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 08/09/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 32 38 45 51 57 60 61 61 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 32 38 45 51 57 60 61 61 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 32 38 45 51 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 20 21 17 20 7 6 6 11 19 22 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 1 0 0 -2 -4 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 298 278 281 289 291 289 336 275 347 316 12 9 352 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.6 29.1 28.3 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 145 148 148 149 150 153 157 164 155 142 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 137 136 138 136 136 138 141 147 151 137 122 122 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.8 -55.1 -55.1 -54.9 -54.5 -54.2 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 12 13 13 13 12 10 700-500 MB RH 46 46 47 48 49 53 54 51 50 46 51 55 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -26 -35 -32 -34 -27 -19 -25 -31 -55 -41 -46 -11 200 MB DIV 27 8 -1 -13 3 -2 22 -6 -2 0 0 -8 48 700-850 TADV 8 5 4 7 6 0 -1 -2 -3 -1 -1 2 8 LAND (KM) 901 854 759 669 606 521 514 579 728 884 743 526 518 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.2 18.6 19.1 19.6 20.5 21.9 23.4 25.4 27.6 29.9 32.1 34.7 LONG(DEG W) 56.6 57.6 58.5 59.4 60.1 61.3 62.6 64.1 66.4 68.8 71.1 71.8 70.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 8 8 10 12 15 16 13 12 17 HEAT CONTENT 31 33 41 55 62 51 38 38 27 51 27 16 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 18. 22. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 20. 26. 32. 35. 36. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.7 56.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 08/09/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.45 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 44.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.28 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.72 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.19 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.75 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.16 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 212.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.73 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 65.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.35 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 13.8% 10.2% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 7.1% 4.1% 1.4% 0.7% 4.1% 8.5% 26.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.7% 7.0% 4.7% 2.3% 0.2% 1.4% 7.2% 8.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992017 INVEST 08/09/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 08/09/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 29 32 38 45 51 57 60 61 61 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 31 37 44 50 56 59 60 60 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 27 33 40 46 52 55 56 56 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 26 33 39 45 48 49 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT