* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 08/09/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 27 29 34 39 47 54 61 65 65 63 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 27 29 34 39 47 54 61 65 65 63 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 29 34 41 49 55 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 16 19 18 11 11 1 7 4 18 19 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 2 1 0 -1 -4 -3 -6 -3 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 304 300 280 283 293 283 320 285 321 319 351 359 334 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.2 29.6 29.0 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 145 146 146 149 150 151 158 165 153 138 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 137 136 137 136 136 139 140 149 153 135 119 120 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.9 -55.0 -55.2 -54.8 -55.0 -54.5 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 12 12 13 12 12 9 700-500 MB RH 46 46 46 47 49 52 53 52 49 49 53 58 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -13 -20 -36 -39 -42 -21 -16 -31 -48 -34 -34 -15 200 MB DIV 33 44 17 -7 -18 -2 4 7 -12 9 -5 5 33 700-850 TADV 5 7 5 4 7 0 0 -3 0 -2 -2 3 5 LAND (KM) 903 880 844 759 678 600 556 617 770 927 759 532 536 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.4 19.0 20.1 21.5 23.3 25.4 27.9 30.2 32.4 34.7 LONG(DEG W) 55.7 56.8 57.7 58.5 59.3 60.3 61.6 63.0 65.3 68.2 70.5 71.4 70.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 9 9 7 10 13 17 17 13 11 15 HEAT CONTENT 35 32 35 41 53 60 39 37 27 45 27 17 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 18. 22. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 4. 2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 2. 4. 9. 14. 22. 29. 36. 40. 40. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.1 55.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 08/09/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.47 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 39.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.25 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.64 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.12 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.76 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.21 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 211.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.73 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 63.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.36 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 12.7% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 4.9% 2.5% 0.7% 0.3% 2.2% 5.4% 18.4% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 2.3% 5.9% 3.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 6.2% 6.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992017 INVEST 08/09/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 08/09/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 27 27 29 34 39 47 54 61 65 65 63 18HR AGO 25 24 26 26 28 33 38 46 53 60 64 64 62 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 23 28 33 41 48 55 59 59 57 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 27 35 42 49 53 53 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT