* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 08/09/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 32 35 42 49 55 61 64 62 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 32 35 42 49 55 61 64 62 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 25 26 29 34 42 50 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 15 16 21 15 16 4 3 4 11 18 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 2 0 0 -1 -4 -6 -6 -2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 287 299 294 276 277 303 292 337 310 348 311 353 346 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.0 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 144 145 147 149 149 150 153 159 162 153 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 137 137 139 138 137 137 142 149 148 134 117 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -54.9 -54.9 -54.7 -54.8 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 13 13 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 11 700-500 MB RH 48 46 45 47 48 51 54 53 52 51 49 55 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -7 -12 -19 -35 -37 -32 -24 -26 -28 -44 -50 -49 200 MB DIV 18 33 35 14 -9 6 -8 14 -4 -6 2 3 -7 700-850 TADV 0 4 7 6 4 7 -2 0 -1 -5 1 -1 7 LAND (KM) 945 886 861 847 749 593 521 529 610 771 966 750 638 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.9 17.4 17.8 18.3 19.5 20.5 22.0 23.7 25.8 28.3 30.7 32.9 LONG(DEG W) 54.5 55.7 56.8 57.7 58.6 60.2 61.3 62.5 64.1 66.3 68.5 70.1 69.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 10 8 9 10 13 16 15 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 33 32 31 33 37 55 47 35 36 27 45 28 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 17. 24. 30. 36. 39. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.5 54.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 08/09/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.46 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 33.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.21 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.60 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.25 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.77 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.23 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 211.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.73 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 51.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.48 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 13.1% 9.6% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 4.5% 2.3% 0.7% 0.4% 1.8% 4.5% 16.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.2% 5.9% 4.0% 2.0% 0.1% 0.6% 5.4% 5.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992017 INVEST 08/09/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 08/09/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 28 32 35 42 49 55 61 64 62 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 31 34 41 48 54 60 63 61 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 27 30 37 44 50 56 59 57 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 23 30 37 43 49 52 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT