* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 08/09/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 28 30 35 41 49 56 63 65 63 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 28 30 35 41 49 56 63 65 63 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 25 29 34 42 50 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 17 14 15 19 6 6 3 3 5 20 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 4 4 2 -1 0 -3 -4 -3 0 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 277 281 287 292 274 300 269 297 142 348 350 333 337 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.2 29.5 28.7 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 144 145 145 148 147 151 151 158 163 149 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 138 138 137 139 135 140 142 149 151 131 122 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.8 -54.9 -55.2 -54.8 -54.9 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 12 12 13 12 12 700-500 MB RH 49 47 48 48 48 52 55 56 51 49 46 50 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 8 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 21 11 3 -2 -10 -39 -34 -18 -20 -36 -59 -52 -46 200 MB DIV 20 36 39 44 30 -12 10 1 7 -14 9 8 24 700-850 TADV -3 -2 3 5 3 7 0 1 -4 0 0 0 15 LAND (KM) 1013 914 847 824 815 685 608 585 669 833 1047 777 735 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.3 16.6 17.0 17.4 18.4 19.7 21.3 23.5 25.9 28.8 31.7 34.6 LONG(DEG W) 53.3 54.7 55.9 56.8 57.7 59.2 60.1 61.1 62.4 64.7 67.2 68.8 67.9 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 11 9 9 9 8 11 14 18 18 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 31 32 33 33 35 41 57 40 31 27 29 20 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 16. 24. 31. 38. 40. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.0 53.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 08/09/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.53 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 32.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.21 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.61 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.29 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.77 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.30 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 198.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.74 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 30.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.70 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 14.2% 10.5% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 12.7% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 13.1% 7.6% 3.9% 2.7% 2.8% 5.3% 26.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% Consensus: 3.2% 9.2% 6.1% 3.3% 0.9% 0.9% 6.1% 8.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992017 INVEST 08/09/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 08/09/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 26 28 30 35 41 49 56 63 65 63 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 27 29 34 40 48 55 62 64 62 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 26 31 37 45 52 59 61 59 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 19 24 30 38 45 52 54 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT