* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 08/08/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 30 32 37 42 49 58 63 66 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 30 32 37 42 49 58 63 66 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 24 26 29 35 43 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 13 13 16 17 15 22 9 10 3 7 6 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 3 5 4 2 -3 -2 -7 -4 -5 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 301 305 284 283 298 279 290 280 304 321 314 312 357 SST (C) 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.3 29.5 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 132 135 139 141 143 142 144 145 149 152 160 163 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 132 134 136 136 133 134 133 138 141 151 150 135 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 -55.1 -55.1 -55.3 -54.9 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 11 11 12 11 12 11 12 13 14 13 700-500 MB RH 51 50 50 48 48 49 52 54 50 47 47 45 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 26 21 14 0 -10 -36 -51 -44 -24 -28 -36 -61 -68 200 MB DIV 30 49 22 19 10 10 -23 2 -5 7 -13 -7 -22 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -4 0 4 9 5 -1 0 -2 -3 1 -2 LAND (KM) 1155 1139 1049 979 937 939 818 758 707 709 831 964 702 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.4 16.9 18.1 19.4 20.9 22.5 24.1 26.1 28.3 30.5 LONG(DEG W) 50.2 51.7 52.9 54.0 55.0 56.6 58.0 59.0 60.6 62.7 65.7 68.6 71.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 11 11 9 9 9 12 14 18 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 28 32 31 32 34 26 36 52 21 35 26 45 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -9. -8. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 12. 17. 24. 33. 39. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.4 50.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 08/08/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.56 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.20 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.54 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.72 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.26 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 186.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.75 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 49.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.50 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 16.0% 12.1% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.5% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 7.0% 3.9% 1.6% 0.6% 1.0% 2.4% 13.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 7.7% 5.4% 2.9% 0.2% 0.3% 4.6% 4.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992017 INVEST 08/08/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 08/08/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 26 27 30 32 37 42 49 58 63 66 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 26 29 31 36 41 48 57 62 65 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 25 27 32 37 44 53 58 61 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 21 26 31 38 47 52 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT