* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 08/08/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 27 27 30 32 37 41 47 54 60 63 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 27 27 30 32 37 41 47 54 60 63 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 24 24 24 25 27 32 39 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 13 14 18 14 21 11 14 6 8 8 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 4 4 3 -5 -6 -6 -7 -6 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 275 295 293 274 277 290 270 296 274 294 305 337 357 SST (C) 27.3 27.5 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.5 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 129 132 134 139 141 141 141 144 147 150 156 163 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 129 130 134 136 133 130 132 136 139 148 152 145 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.5 -54.7 -54.9 -55.1 -55.2 -55.0 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 11 11 12 12 13 14 700-500 MB RH 51 50 49 49 50 49 51 53 50 49 47 46 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 31 21 13 9 -5 -33 -49 -51 -26 -24 -31 -48 -52 200 MB DIV 10 28 40 20 8 25 -16 0 -2 12 -1 -16 -26 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -3 1 10 7 0 -2 -2 -4 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 1221 1173 1171 1103 1040 1013 945 850 767 711 742 816 837 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.8 18.2 19.5 21.0 22.3 23.7 25.1 26.9 28.7 LONG(DEG W) 48.5 50.0 51.3 52.5 53.6 55.5 56.8 58.1 59.7 62.0 64.9 68.3 71.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 10 11 13 17 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 17 27 34 33 34 30 27 36 25 29 29 45 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 714 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 29. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 2. 2. 5. 7. 12. 16. 22. 29. 35. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.3 48.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 08/08/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.55 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 29.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.19 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.66 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.70 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.24 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 179.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.76 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 47.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.53 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 15.9% 12.1% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 3.8% 1.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.9% 2.5% 9.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 6.6% 4.7% 2.5% 0.1% 0.3% 4.9% 3.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992017 INVEST 08/08/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 08/08/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 27 27 30 32 37 41 47 54 60 63 18HR AGO 25 24 24 26 26 29 31 36 40 46 53 59 62 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 23 26 28 33 37 43 50 56 59 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 18 20 25 29 35 42 48 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT