* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 08/07/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 30 33 36 41 45 48 53 56 60 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 30 33 36 41 45 48 53 56 60 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 26 25 25 26 28 32 36 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 16 17 16 19 12 18 9 17 9 16 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 1 4 3 1 -8 -3 -6 -1 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 294 264 274 286 276 272 282 284 316 286 324 315 341 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.7 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 129 131 134 139 138 141 145 150 154 157 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 123 126 128 129 132 130 132 134 141 145 149 148 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.8 -54.9 -54.9 -54.7 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 13 700-500 MB RH 50 49 48 47 46 48 47 50 50 49 48 49 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 46 41 25 11 1 -11 -34 -44 -38 -28 -29 -36 -47 200 MB DIV -16 0 1 7 19 13 15 -21 -5 -11 0 -22 -10 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -5 -4 -1 7 12 6 -1 -5 -3 -8 -6 LAND (KM) 1410 1372 1324 1290 1284 1167 1163 1002 852 693 590 538 544 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.9 16.1 16.4 16.8 17.9 19.4 20.8 22.1 22.9 23.6 24.1 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 45.3 46.6 48.0 49.4 50.7 53.0 54.7 56.5 58.6 61.2 64.4 67.7 71.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 13 13 12 11 11 12 14 15 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 33 23 17 28 39 31 23 22 26 23 36 37 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 29. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 16. 20. 23. 28. 31. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.5 45.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 08/07/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.59 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.18 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.74 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.65 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.15 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 180.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.76 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 51.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.49 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 15.6% 12.1% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 10.4% 6.0% 2.3% 1.2% 5.7% 4.6% 9.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 8.7% 6.1% 3.1% 0.4% 1.9% 5.9% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992017 INVEST 08/07/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 08/07/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 30 33 36 41 45 48 53 56 60 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 28 31 34 39 43 46 51 54 58 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 26 29 34 38 41 46 49 53 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 22 27 31 34 39 42 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT