* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 08/07/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 29 31 33 38 40 44 49 55 59 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 29 31 33 38 40 44 49 55 59 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 25 25 26 28 33 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 8 11 15 16 16 17 16 18 7 14 6 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -1 3 2 7 0 -3 0 -5 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 328 297 266 269 283 264 285 274 308 279 322 332 340 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.6 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 128 130 133 139 141 141 146 150 152 158 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 123 125 128 131 135 135 133 137 141 145 152 154 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.0 -54.4 -54.3 -54.7 -54.7 -55.0 -54.6 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 9 11 11 12 11 11 11 13 13 700-500 MB RH 51 49 48 48 46 50 51 52 53 54 52 52 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 45 41 36 28 17 7 -12 -37 -38 -31 -23 -26 -44 200 MB DIV -20 -7 1 4 11 13 23 12 -10 4 -8 0 -11 700-850 TADV -4 0 -2 -5 -5 -1 9 8 6 -6 -8 -6 -9 LAND (KM) 1450 1401 1342 1281 1231 1101 1002 962 799 670 570 577 622 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.6 15.8 15.9 16.1 16.7 17.7 19.2 20.7 22.1 23.2 24.3 25.4 LONG(DEG W) 44.3 45.6 47.0 48.5 50.1 52.8 55.0 56.6 58.5 60.7 63.8 67.3 71.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 15 15 13 11 11 12 14 16 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 25 32 20 18 35 32 36 27 49 27 38 35 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 29. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 13. 15. 19. 24. 30. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.2 44.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 08/07/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.65 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.17 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.64 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.65 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.13 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 168.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.77 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 52.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.47 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 15.4% 12.0% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.1% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 8.1% 4.4% 1.6% 1.0% 2.5% 2.2% 7.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 7.8% 5.5% 2.9% 0.3% 0.8% 5.1% 2.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992017 INVEST 08/07/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 08/07/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 28 29 31 33 38 40 44 49 55 59 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 28 30 32 37 39 43 48 54 58 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 26 28 33 35 39 44 50 54 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 20 25 27 31 36 42 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT