* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 08/07/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 32 37 41 44 47 48 55 59 64 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 32 37 41 44 47 48 55 59 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 31 32 32 32 33 36 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 11 12 7 4 11 13 17 16 18 9 14 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 0 2 3 6 -2 -5 -3 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 338 328 330 319 280 290 260 276 261 295 275 311 343 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.6 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 130 131 133 134 135 134 139 142 141 145 147 148 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 129 131 132 134 133 137 137 134 136 138 141 150 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -53.9 -54.3 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 -55.1 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 9 9 11 11 12 11 11 11 13 700-500 MB RH 54 55 52 51 51 51 53 55 53 52 53 52 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 43 42 38 37 35 21 9 -10 -35 -37 -37 -25 -24 200 MB DIV -21 -10 -19 -13 -4 3 4 12 13 -23 4 -15 0 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -6 -3 -3 -3 -3 6 11 5 -2 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 1488 1431 1354 1285 1214 1109 1022 908 917 777 702 666 728 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.7 15.0 15.7 16.9 18.5 20.3 22.2 23.9 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 42.1 43.3 44.7 46.0 47.4 50.3 53.0 55.4 57.0 58.6 60.4 63.2 66.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 14 14 13 12 11 12 14 17 19 HEAT CONTENT 8 15 32 33 20 23 31 39 30 52 26 39 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 29. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -7. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 12. 16. 19. 22. 23. 30. 34. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.9 42.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 08/07/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.81 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.14 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.40 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.69 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.08 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 156.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.78 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 45.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.55 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 14.3% 11.3% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 6.4% 3.4% 1.2% 1.0% 1.5% 2.7% 6.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 6.9% 4.9% 2.7% 0.3% 0.5% 5.3% 2.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992017 INVEST 08/07/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 08/07/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 32 37 41 44 47 48 55 59 64 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 30 35 39 42 45 46 53 57 62 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 25 30 34 37 40 41 48 52 57 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 27 30 33 34 41 45 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT