* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 08/06/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 40 47 51 52 55 57 63 66 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 40 47 51 52 55 57 63 66 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 33 36 39 40 40 40 42 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 4 10 12 5 13 15 20 16 19 13 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 -1 1 5 0 -2 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 39 43 345 333 346 309 295 267 278 259 298 271 310 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 131 132 135 136 135 138 143 143 147 147 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 129 129 130 134 134 134 136 141 137 141 140 143 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.0 -54.3 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.8 -54.8 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 8 9 9 11 11 11 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 60 57 55 55 52 53 54 56 57 56 56 53 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 11 11 10 11 10 10 10 8 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 52 46 50 52 45 35 21 2 -12 -27 -37 -38 -34 200 MB DIV 21 3 -26 -10 -19 -5 17 4 16 22 -15 5 -2 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -6 -7 -4 -2 -1 -4 3 9 3 -8 -7 LAND (KM) 1583 1507 1428 1347 1260 1135 1058 1025 917 856 663 553 556 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.5 13.7 13.7 13.7 14.0 14.5 15.6 17.1 19.0 20.7 22.2 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 40.0 41.4 42.7 43.9 45.2 47.6 50.3 52.9 55.5 57.6 59.9 62.4 65.7 STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 12 12 13 12 14 14 15 13 15 15 17 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 10 18 29 17 21 31 39 33 48 33 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 17 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 22. 26. 27. 30. 32. 38. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 40.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 08/06/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.81 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.09 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.40 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.70 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.11 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 149.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.79 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 11.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 14.2% 11.3% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 13.1% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 6.0% 3.1% 1.0% 0.0% 2.8% 3.3% 4.7% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 6.8% 4.9% 2.8% 0.0% 0.9% 5.5% 1.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992017 INVEST 08/06/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 08/06/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 34 40 47 51 52 55 57 63 66 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 38 45 49 50 53 55 61 64 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 33 40 44 45 48 50 56 59 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 31 35 36 39 41 47 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT