* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 08/06/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 37 46 51 56 57 58 61 63 66 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 37 46 51 56 57 58 61 63 66 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 39 40 40 39 41 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 19 17 13 15 17 26 30 21 17 18 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 -2 -1 -2 -6 -2 -1 3 0 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 44 35 35 37 22 339 284 279 267 289 268 304 267 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.7 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.7 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 136 134 133 133 135 136 140 142 149 151 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 140 134 130 130 133 137 137 140 139 146 149 144 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.3 -54.3 -53.8 -53.8 -54.3 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 62 61 57 56 58 62 60 55 51 53 55 56 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 13 13 13 13 12 13 12 11 11 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 65 63 56 48 38 25 24 15 -3 -24 -27 -37 -18 200 MB DIV 22 33 14 15 2 -3 5 12 7 35 25 -5 15 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -8 -9 -8 -2 4 1 -7 1 -2 -14 -13 LAND (KM) 1521 1392 1327 1300 1308 1323 1309 1294 1159 924 616 323 253 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.3 10.6 11.0 11.6 13.2 15.0 16.6 18.2 19.5 20.5 20.8 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 38.8 40.2 41.1 41.7 42.1 43.6 46.2 49.8 53.4 57.0 60.3 64.1 67.7 STM SPEED (KT) 16 11 8 7 8 14 17 19 19 17 17 18 16 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 14 15 14 17 26 20 21 26 44 47 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 373 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 30. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 21. 26. 31. 32. 33. 36. 38. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.2 38.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 08/06/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.52 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.09 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.51 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.74 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.22 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 127.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.81 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 5.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 14.8% 11.6% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 8.0% 4.0% 1.1% 0.6% 4.4% 7.1% 7.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 8.1% 5.3% 2.8% 0.2% 1.5% 6.2% 2.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992017 INVEST 08/06/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 08/06/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 34 37 46 51 56 57 58 61 63 66 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 34 43 48 53 54 55 58 60 63 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 28 37 42 47 48 49 52 54 57 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 27 32 37 38 39 42 44 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT