* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 08/05/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 46 52 56 58 59 59 64 66 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 46 52 56 58 59 59 64 66 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 30 34 37 39 41 41 40 41 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 14 16 13 14 14 23 28 26 14 21 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -2 0 -2 0 -2 -1 1 4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 45 42 29 30 19 335 320 280 271 280 302 289 289 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.5 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 137 135 134 131 134 134 138 141 146 151 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 142 136 133 132 130 134 135 137 139 141 147 145 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -54.3 -54.3 -53.8 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 11 11 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 61 61 60 57 56 59 59 56 53 54 53 54 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 9 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 67 65 62 51 40 21 17 23 3 -15 -29 -38 -42 200 MB DIV 0 27 32 18 13 0 4 7 6 35 13 -12 5 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -6 -7 -8 -5 0 3 -5 1 9 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 1704 1566 1472 1421 1391 1379 1341 1307 1214 1058 758 485 348 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.5 10.7 11.1 11.7 13.2 14.8 16.2 17.5 18.7 20.0 20.8 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 37.0 38.5 39.6 40.4 41.2 42.8 45.4 48.6 52.1 55.5 58.7 61.9 65.5 STM SPEED (KT) 17 13 10 9 10 13 16 18 17 17 15 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 20 15 14 14 12 13 36 16 21 24 50 31 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 390 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -8. -8. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 27. 31. 33. 34. 34. 39. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.3 37.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 08/05/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.57 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 15.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.10 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.40 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.76 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.23 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 132.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.81 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 13.6% 10.5% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 13.8% 7.2% 3.0% 2.1% 7.9% 7.3% 7.7% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.8% 9.5% 6.0% 3.2% 0.7% 2.7% 5.9% 2.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992017 INVEST 08/05/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 08/05/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 34 38 46 52 56 58 59 59 64 66 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 35 43 49 53 55 56 56 61 63 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 29 37 43 47 49 50 50 55 57 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 27 33 37 39 40 40 45 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT