* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 08/05/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 33 38 48 57 62 67 66 66 70 70 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 33 38 48 57 62 67 66 66 70 70 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 36 41 46 50 51 50 50 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 10 10 13 7 13 9 20 21 19 18 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -3 -1 0 -1 0 0 1 6 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 41 60 55 37 29 4 338 278 281 256 273 269 282 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.4 28.8 29.2 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 138 138 136 133 137 136 138 145 151 157 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 142 140 140 136 132 138 138 141 148 154 159 156 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 -54.5 -54.3 -53.7 -54.3 -53.9 -54.3 -53.9 -54.3 -53.9 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 9 8 10 10 12 12 13 13 700-500 MB RH 63 61 61 59 55 54 55 54 55 54 56 56 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 14 15 16 16 15 15 12 11 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 73 65 62 54 48 34 29 18 13 1 -19 -28 -30 200 MB DIV -13 6 31 34 20 14 10 -10 15 -1 0 -9 6 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -5 -6 -7 -1 2 2 -15 -11 -5 -9 LAND (KM) 1890 1737 1612 1495 1396 1290 1203 1120 1056 775 624 348 33 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.4 12.2 13.2 14.3 15.0 15.5 16.2 17.0 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 35.2 36.9 38.3 39.6 40.9 42.9 45.4 48.5 52.0 55.7 59.4 62.7 66.3 STM SPEED (KT) 19 16 13 13 12 12 15 17 18 18 17 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 18 22 18 14 13 15 22 13 29 32 53 36 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 468 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 27. 31. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. 1. -3. -6. -8. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 13. 23. 32. 37. 42. 41. 41. 45. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.4 35.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 08/05/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.67 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.11 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.42 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.79 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.21 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 126.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.81 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 15.1% 11.7% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 12.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 9.1% 4.4% 1.2% 0.6% 2.3% 6.3% 11.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 2.4% 8.2% 5.4% 2.8% 0.2% 0.8% 6.3% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992017 INVEST 08/05/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 08/05/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 29 33 38 48 57 62 67 66 66 70 70 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 36 46 55 60 65 64 64 68 68 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 30 40 49 54 59 58 58 62 62 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 30 39 44 49 48 48 52 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT