* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 08/05/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 32 37 49 59 64 70 72 73 74 75 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 32 37 49 59 64 70 72 73 74 75 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 28 30 37 43 48 53 57 59 59 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 13 9 7 8 8 8 13 16 19 17 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 2 2 1 3 4 0 SHEAR DIR 44 46 57 52 40 341 303 310 278 281 272 286 275 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.5 27.6 27.9 27.9 28.4 28.6 29.0 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 136 135 135 135 132 134 138 137 144 148 154 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 140 136 136 137 133 137 141 139 146 151 156 161 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 -54.6 -53.7 -54.1 -53.7 -54.1 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 700-500 MB RH 65 64 63 64 62 56 58 53 58 56 61 61 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 13 14 17 18 17 17 15 14 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 67 69 58 49 43 31 37 31 27 12 -3 -20 -40 200 MB DIV -28 -13 8 31 33 20 38 17 6 -1 5 10 -8 700-850 TADV -4 -1 -2 -3 -3 -4 -3 -3 0 -7 -11 -9 -8 LAND (KM) 1768 1931 1837 1752 1656 1516 1360 1139 961 814 575 584 202 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.3 10.8 11.3 11.8 13.1 14.0 14.2 13.9 14.1 14.7 16.1 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 33.0 34.7 35.9 37.0 38.3 40.9 44.1 47.9 51.2 54.3 57.5 60.7 64.1 STM SPEED (KT) 19 15 12 13 14 15 18 17 16 15 17 16 18 HEAT CONTENT 22 19 22 27 24 11 26 13 23 27 39 46 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 22 CX,CY: -21/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 370 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 30. 33. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 3. 2. -1. -3. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 12. 24. 34. 40. 45. 47. 48. 50. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.9 33.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 08/05/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.70 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.15 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.41 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.78 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.17 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 108.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.83 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 14.3% 11.1% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 8.0% 3.6% 0.7% 0.3% 1.7% 5.9% 17.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 1.9% 7.5% 4.9% 2.6% 0.1% 0.6% 6.4% 6.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 08/05/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 32 37 49 59 64 70 72 73 74 75 18HR AGO 25 24 26 30 35 47 57 62 68 70 71 72 73 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 30 42 52 57 63 65 66 67 68 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 32 42 47 53 55 56 57 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT