* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 08/05/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 35 48 54 63 69 73 73 75 75 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 35 48 54 63 69 73 73 75 75 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 45 50 55 57 58 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 11 14 6 6 4 10 4 10 14 18 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 2 1 0 0 4 4 5 4 0 SHEAR DIR 39 26 23 22 358 326 244 313 247 282 255 284 262 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 139 134 133 132 132 131 136 135 136 141 146 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 144 136 134 134 134 133 136 133 134 140 146 147 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 -53.8 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 10 9 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 68 68 65 64 64 63 58 57 60 62 60 62 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 15 15 15 19 17 19 19 19 17 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 67 64 59 52 46 40 37 40 30 16 -8 -29 -37 200 MB DIV -18 -18 -6 7 39 75 36 6 8 18 14 25 4 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -4 -8 -5 0 -1 -6 -5 -2 -7 -4 -6 LAND (KM) 1567 1730 1848 1925 1842 1656 1469 1231 1091 1000 926 818 654 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.1 10.6 11.2 11.9 13.2 14.1 14.0 14.1 14.3 15.3 16.8 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 31.0 32.7 34.0 35.2 36.4 39.3 42.6 46.0 48.7 51.3 53.8 56.6 59.5 STM SPEED (KT) 18 15 13 13 15 16 17 15 13 12 14 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 26 23 19 17 21 14 13 29 12 24 27 40 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 408 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 30. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 4. 6. 5. 5. 1. -0. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 23. 29. 38. 44. 48. 48. 50. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.8 31.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 08/05/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.69 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.14 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.45 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.78 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.14 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 99.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.84 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 15.2% 11.9% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 14.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 6.8% 3.1% 0.5% 0.3% 1.2% 6.5% 24.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.7% Consensus: 2.3% 7.4% 5.0% 2.7% 0.1% 0.4% 7.2% 8.4% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 08/05/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 35 48 54 63 69 73 73 75 75 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 33 46 52 61 67 71 71 73 73 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 41 47 56 62 66 66 68 68 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 32 38 47 53 57 57 59 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT