* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 08/04/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 33 37 46 54 62 70 73 77 79 77 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 33 37 46 54 62 70 73 77 79 77 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 44 50 57 62 64 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 7 9 6 5 2 3 8 9 15 20 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 3 -1 1 2 0 6 SHEAR DIR 38 28 13 2 355 268 165 302 347 280 260 268 270 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.3 26.9 27.2 27.4 27.8 28.0 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 137 130 126 130 131 134 136 135 139 143 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 148 142 134 130 134 133 131 132 136 141 145 149 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -54.2 -53.7 -54.3 -53.8 -53.9 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 69 70 69 68 66 63 57 60 63 65 59 60 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 17 16 17 17 18 19 18 19 18 15 850 MB ENV VOR 54 58 53 42 34 44 41 42 21 7 2 -10 -11 200 MB DIV -6 -6 -7 -4 13 55 42 27 -14 13 32 17 11 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -4 -6 -6 -1 -4 -4 -7 -2 0 -5 -8 LAND (KM) 1290 1434 1542 1664 1815 1807 1487 1239 1156 1174 1196 960 666 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.3 11.0 11.9 12.8 13.9 13.8 13.0 13.3 14.7 16.5 17.6 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 28.4 29.9 31.2 32.6 34.2 38.1 42.0 44.6 46.2 48.2 51.6 55.5 59.4 STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 15 17 19 20 16 10 9 16 19 20 17 HEAT CONTENT 8 20 32 25 12 10 11 17 20 11 27 36 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 436 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 29. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 8. 12. 21. 29. 37. 45. 48. 52. 54. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.9 28.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 08/04/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.76 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.12 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.51 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.80 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.13 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 104.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.83 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 16.1% 12.6% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.3% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 20.2% 11.8% 4.0% 2.9% 4.4% 14.6% 39.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 3.6% Consensus: 3.2% 12.3% 8.2% 4.0% 1.0% 1.5% 10.1% 14.4% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 08/04/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 33 37 46 54 62 70 73 77 79 77 18HR AGO 25 24 26 31 35 44 52 60 68 71 75 77 75 12HR AGO 25 22 21 26 30 39 47 55 63 66 70 72 70 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 28 36 44 52 55 59 61 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT