* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 08/04/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 33 39 51 65 77 88 93 97 97 98 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 33 39 51 65 77 88 93 97 97 98 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 32 38 47 58 71 81 83 79 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 4 4 3 4 6 2 9 3 6 10 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 4 0 1 -1 0 5 0 1 5 7 4 SHEAR DIR 43 45 13 309 335 102 55 37 289 224 303 280 291 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.5 27.0 27.3 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 141 133 128 131 131 130 132 133 132 134 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 150 147 140 134 135 127 126 134 135 124 131 141 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -53.5 -54.0 -53.6 -53.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 72 72 73 71 68 66 64 63 60 54 58 63 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 16 17 20 21 23 25 28 29 29 27 29 850 MB ENV VOR 45 49 48 44 42 63 61 36 33 57 55 7 -27 200 MB DIV 25 19 23 19 28 75 73 61 65 46 32 7 22 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -5 -5 -5 -4 -5 -1 -9 -6 -4 7 19 LAND (KM) 1064 1223 1349 1505 1703 1829 1531 1492 1520 1362 1120 1182 1305 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.5 11.2 11.9 12.5 13.0 12.5 13.1 15.3 16.2 15.1 15.8 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 26.3 27.9 29.4 31.1 33.1 37.2 40.2 41.2 43.4 47.4 50.3 50.6 52.6 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 17 19 21 19 9 9 19 19 7 13 23 HEAT CONTENT 11 8 14 26 19 15 14 11 20 14 18 24 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 468 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 11. 16. 16. 15. 12. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 14. 26. 40. 52. 63. 68. 72. 72. 73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 26.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 08/04/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 15.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.10 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.41 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.82 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 99.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.84 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 08/04/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 29 33 39 51 65 77 88 93 97 97 98 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 37 49 63 75 86 91 95 95 96 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 31 43 57 69 80 85 89 89 90 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 21 33 47 59 70 75 79 79 80 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT