* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 08/04/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 38 46 53 58 61 65 69 69 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 38 46 53 58 61 65 69 69 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 29 31 36 41 46 50 52 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 15 11 6 4 4 13 2 11 5 4 7 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 7 6 6 5 2 -3 5 3 4 4 4 3 SHEAR DIR 14 16 2 347 269 306 80 4 262 261 144 293 261 SST (C) 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.3 27.6 27.4 27.1 27.4 27.7 27.6 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 135 140 143 142 136 130 130 130 128 131 132 133 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 148 153 152 143 132 126 130 128 131 126 129 134 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.0 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.9 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 10 700-500 MB RH 75 76 73 73 73 67 66 68 61 57 59 62 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 42 40 48 59 56 53 28 26 45 47 26 2 200 MB DIV 106 64 45 53 40 20 63 71 74 65 13 8 30 700-850 TADV -14 -10 -4 -2 -4 -5 -2 0 -7 -2 0 4 18 LAND (KM) 692 868 1047 1232 1426 1817 1836 1799 1725 1494 1294 1275 1324 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.2 10.7 11.3 11.7 11.7 11.6 13.1 15.0 15.3 14.9 15.7 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 22.7 24.5 26.3 28.3 30.3 34.0 36.3 37.6 40.1 43.8 46.3 48.2 50.7 STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 19 20 19 16 7 14 17 16 9 13 16 HEAT CONTENT 11 14 10 8 21 17 23 14 5 25 20 12 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 29. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 21. 28. 33. 36. 40. 44. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.9 22.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 08/04/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.08 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.85 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 86.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.85 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 08/04/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 32 38 46 53 58 61 65 69 69 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 30 36 44 51 56 59 63 67 67 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 32 40 47 52 55 59 63 63 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 32 39 44 47 51 55 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT