* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 08/03/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 50 57 62 64 65 68 72 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 50 57 62 64 65 68 72 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 32 35 40 45 50 53 54 54 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 9 7 2 3 18 23 9 20 19 17 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 11 8 5 8 3 -4 -2 3 0 0 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 11 25 39 27 354 101 75 64 10 278 263 216 86 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.1 27.8 28.0 27.8 26.7 26.6 27.0 27.4 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 134 136 140 143 142 136 134 134 124 124 128 132 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 145 151 155 153 142 129 132 125 126 129 133 127 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.2 -54.3 -54.0 -53.5 -53.9 -53.3 -54.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.0 -53.5 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 7 6 6 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 76 76 76 73 72 71 64 70 70 60 49 47 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 40 37 43 56 93 83 57 20 33 56 64 44 200 MB DIV 129 108 67 54 43 7 10 58 66 69 30 7 5 700-850 TADV -13 -15 -3 0 -1 0 0 -3 0 -3 -10 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 499 683 900 1121 1325 1747 1867 1894 1923 2026 1802 1431 1164 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.8 11.0 10.5 9.9 10.5 13.5 16.7 17.8 16.4 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 20.9 22.8 24.9 27.0 29.1 33.0 35.2 35.2 35.3 37.9 42.4 46.4 48.0 STM SPEED (KT) 17 20 21 21 21 16 4 9 18 22 21 18 8 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 13 9 10 23 22 22 8 13 9 23 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 29. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 5. 5. 5. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 25. 32. 37. 39. 40. 43. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.2 20.9 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 08/03/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.06 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.86 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 75.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.86 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 08/03/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 33 36 43 50 57 62 64 65 68 72 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 33 40 47 54 59 61 62 65 69 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 34 41 48 53 55 56 59 63 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 32 39 44 46 47 50 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT