* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 08/03/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 36 41 49 56 61 64 65 66 67 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 36 41 49 56 61 64 65 66 67 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 34 39 45 50 53 53 53 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 13 9 4 1 11 23 20 13 22 25 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 8 5 7 7 -2 -3 1 4 3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 25 15 34 56 44 181 55 81 54 330 277 252 231 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.1 27.9 28.0 27.6 26.5 26.6 27.0 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 136 140 143 141 136 133 132 123 125 128 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 142 146 151 155 150 137 126 133 126 127 126 132 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -53.3 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 74 73 73 73 72 73 68 63 68 66 54 49 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 34 34 33 40 62 73 66 36 32 43 32 36 200 MB DIV 85 95 88 65 55 40 14 57 72 50 24 -1 27 700-850 TADV -9 -14 -14 -1 0 0 -2 1 -1 -1 5 0 0 LAND (KM) 342 479 673 889 1112 1525 1875 1838 1936 1902 2050 1836 1532 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.7 10.6 10.1 9.9 11.0 14.6 18.0 18.9 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 19.0 20.7 22.7 24.8 26.9 30.9 34.1 35.5 35.0 35.2 39.0 43.4 47.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 18 20 21 21 18 11 2 12 22 24 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 16 9 8 13 9 27 21 24 20 5 3 6 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 6. 4. 4. 2. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 16. 24. 31. 36. 39. 40. 41. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 19.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 08/03/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 79.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.86 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 08/03/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 32 36 41 49 56 61 64 65 66 67 18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 33 38 46 53 58 61 62 63 64 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 27 32 40 47 52 55 56 57 58 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 24 32 39 44 47 48 49 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT