* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 08/03/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 32 40 49 54 58 62 64 64 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 32 40 49 54 58 62 64 64 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 23 26 29 33 35 36 37 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 11 11 9 3 6 18 28 25 17 25 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 9 10 6 8 0 -2 -3 1 3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 52 23 13 31 54 135 75 78 81 50 340 274 261 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.7 28.1 28.2 27.9 28.1 28.1 27.6 26.5 26.4 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 135 137 142 143 138 137 135 133 123 122 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 143 145 148 155 154 144 136 128 137 128 123 117 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.5 -53.8 -53.1 -54.0 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 76 74 73 73 73 71 72 64 64 68 70 55 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 41 34 35 34 55 75 74 77 23 20 29 -2 200 MB DIV 64 83 96 85 59 55 20 7 62 60 39 15 -15 700-850 TADV -6 -10 -14 -14 0 0 -1 0 0 -2 -9 20 31 LAND (KM) 237 311 489 698 940 1384 1799 1789 1720 1896 1933 2140 2130 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.2 9.7 9.5 11.0 14.9 18.9 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 17.2 18.8 20.9 23.0 25.3 29.6 33.4 35.9 36.5 35.4 35.5 38.8 42.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 18 21 22 22 20 17 8 3 15 24 23 17 HEAT CONTENT 10 14 8 9 12 14 22 24 24 21 4 0 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 5. 2. 0. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 13. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 20. 29. 34. 38. 42. 44. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.0 17.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 08/03/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 58.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.88 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 08/03/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 24 26 32 40 49 54 58 62 64 64 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 24 30 38 47 52 56 60 62 62 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 26 34 43 48 52 56 58 58 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT