* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 10/22/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 43 43 43 42 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 43 43 39 39 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 38 30 27 24 21 20 19 18 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 25 34 34 33 65 110 87 63 58 40 30 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 7 15 16 3 -28 1 14 13 13 15 11 SHEAR DIR 192 198 198 177 180 224 239 251 244 218 194 188 187 SST (C) 27.0 26.4 26.6 25.4 19.6 6.7 7.8 7.0 8.7 6.4 5.0 4.6 5.2 POT. INT. (KT) 127 122 127 117 87 71 69 69 67 63 59 61 63 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 111 122 114 83 70 68 68 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -53.5 -54.0 -50.4 -47.2 -46.1 -45.5 -46.1 -47.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 48 49 51 52 63 60 69 77 79 78 72 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 127 142 151 151 273 148 104 163 240 366 322 291 208 200 MB DIV 82 72 74 82 123 121 62 80 20 -41 -77 -69 -46 700-850 TADV -4 -14 -10 -105 -124 59 94 106 82 82 6 8 22 LAND (KM) 597 593 723 567 277 37 520 1154 1397 1167 1031 930 914 LAT (DEG N) 31.8 33.3 35.3 38.4 42.3 49.7 54.3 58.4 62.7 65.3 65.6 66.0 64.4 LONG(DEG W) 71.1 70.0 67.9 65.1 62.0 55.0 48.2 39.9 33.7 36.0 38.8 40.8 42.5 STM SPEED (KT) 16 22 32 42 47 37 30 30 19 11 4 6 12 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 15 CX,CY: 6/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 858 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 3. -15. -34. -50. -66. -79. -88. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 7. 9. 12. 15. 17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. -4. -23. -40. -56. -70. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.8 71.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 10/22/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.48 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.54 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.41 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 28.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 183.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.76 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 10/22/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 10/22/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 41 43 43 39 39 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 37 39 39 35 35 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 33 29 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 21 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT