* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 10/21/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 40 40 39 35 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 40 40 37 33 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 33 28 27 25 24 23 24 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 20 24 28 34 26 59 100 85 57 50 43 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -3 0 7 12 4 -19 1 7 16 12 14 SHEAR DIR 207 199 193 200 203 177 232 243 258 261 228 202 185 SST (C) 27.9 27.5 27.1 26.4 26.6 17.6 6.5 8.8 7.0 8.6 6.8 4.2 2.8 POT. INT. (KT) 136 131 128 123 128 82 70 69 70 69 66 63 62 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 115 115 116 126 78 69 68 69 67 65 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -54.5 -54.2 -51.6 -48.8 -48.5 -46.9 -47.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 48 45 46 48 53 66 64 71 73 83 81 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 13 12 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 89 114 128 130 159 282 93 78 131 131 212 311 298 200 MB DIV 42 81 70 62 63 126 85 44 56 53 -26 -102 -108 700-850 TADV -4 2 -4 -2 7 -95 54 65 133 120 91 46 17 LAND (KM) 698 610 577 603 716 197 48 618 1239 1414 1358 1018 802 LAT (DEG N) 29.3 30.4 31.5 33.1 35.6 43.3 49.8 53.3 56.8 61.2 65.7 67.3 68.3 LONG(DEG W) 72.9 72.6 71.7 70.0 67.5 61.2 53.7 46.6 37.5 30.0 31.4 38.2 43.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 17 27 37 47 34 28 32 26 19 13 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 13 CX,CY: 0/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 735 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. -7. -24. -40. -56. -71. -82. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 10. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 10. 9. 5. -8. -21. -36. -51. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 29.3 72.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 10/21/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.16 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.45 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.55 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.42 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.54 0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 35.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.65 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 185.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.75 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 11.9% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.6% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 10/21/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 10/21/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 37 40 40 37 33 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 37 37 34 30 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 31 28 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT