* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 10/21/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 44 46 50 51 52 53 53 52 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 39 44 46 50 51 52 53 53 52 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 17 19 25 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -8 -6 -5 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 203 193 185 190 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.0 27.4 26.4 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 139 133 122 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 132 127 122 113 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 53 53 54 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 13 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 83 92 119 183 216 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 46 93 111 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -1 -11 -38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 676 705 608 550 589 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 17 21 24 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 42 9 8 1 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 743 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 17. 20. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 1. -3. -7. -11. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 14. 16. 20. 21. 22. 23. 23. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 27.8 73.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 10/21/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.30 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.64 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.41 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.49 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.57 0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 52.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.48 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 165.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.77 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 13.9% 8.3% 6.3% 4.4% 7.0% 9.5% Logistic: 1.0% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 5.4% 2.9% 2.1% 1.5% 2.4% 3.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 10/21/16 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 10/21/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 39 44 46 50 51 52 53 53 52 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 36 41 43 47 48 49 50 50 49 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 36 38 42 43 44 45 45 44 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 29 33 34 35 36 36 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT