* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 10/21/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 40 42 44 46 47 47 47 46 45 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 40 42 44 46 47 47 47 46 45 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 21 19 21 25 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -7 -6 -4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 201 201 199 188 185 178 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.4 28.0 27.2 26.3 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 143 139 131 122 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 130 126 127 121 113 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 54 52 56 57 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 15 14 13 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 88 95 98 125 179 290 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 66 42 50 114 115 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -2 -16 -52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 692 744 709 623 598 491 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 17 22 25 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 55 20 10 7 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. -1. -5. -9. -14. -17. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. 16. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 27.3 73.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 10/21/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.28 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.68 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.8 to -3.1 0.36 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.49 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.59 0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 52.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.48 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 157.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.78 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 14.0% 8.3% 6.3% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 3.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 5.9% 3.1% 2.2% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 10/21/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 10/21/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 38 40 42 44 46 47 47 47 46 45 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 37 39 41 43 44 44 44 43 42 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 33 35 37 38 38 38 37 36 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 24 26 28 29 29 29 28 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT