* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 10/20/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 37 39 42 41 42 41 41 40 40 39 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 37 39 42 41 42 41 41 40 40 39 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 34 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 21 19 19 19 26 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -4 -8 -5 -2 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 210 199 212 211 206 189 168 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.4 28.0 26.5 19.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 152 144 141 126 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 135 136 136 131 132 121 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 55 52 53 53 54 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 15 13 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 94 86 76 79 86 198 301 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 57 56 46 39 73 92 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 3 1 -2 -1 -34 -128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 566 648 692 781 712 683 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 9 11 15 22 33 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 58 64 57 16 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 767 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 14. 17. 20. 23. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. -1. -5. -10. -14. -18. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 9. 12. 11. 12. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 25.5 73.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 10/20/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.39 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 40.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.26 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.62 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.8 to -3.1 0.36 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.38 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.68 1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 63.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.37 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 151.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 14.9% 8.9% 7.0% 5.1% 7.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 4.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 6.3% 3.4% 2.4% 1.7% 2.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 10/20/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 10/20/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 34 37 39 42 41 42 41 41 40 40 39 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 37 40 39 40 39 39 38 38 37 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 34 33 34 33 33 32 32 31 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 25 24 25 24 24 23 23 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT