* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 10/20/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 37 40 45 48 70 69 52 37 22 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 37 40 45 48 70 69 52 37 22 DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 32 34 40 49 44 35 31 31 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 19 19 20 24 38 33 32 58 63 65 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -4 -4 -2 -6 0 4 4 5 -8 3 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 223 212 208 217 222 207 226 177 222 288 326 330 338 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.3 26.5 23.3 8.0 11.9 11.7 13.6 14.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 154 149 148 147 146 127 102 72 73 71 69 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 135 127 126 130 141 128 98 71 71 69 66 67 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -55.8 -56.7 -56.9 -56.7 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 52 47 45 44 50 54 48 62 67 65 56 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 15 15 13 14 32 33 24 20 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 96 91 83 79 54 68 69 91 47 -29 -49 -63 -48 200 MB DIV 27 37 38 23 17 63 43 57 89 -10 -4 -21 11 700-850 TADV 12 10 2 -1 0 7 34 -57 -33 90 134 74 57 LAND (KM) 571 579 558 545 594 796 971 471 179 1007 1284 856 533 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 26.0 26.5 26.8 27.4 29.5 33.9 41.3 48.2 50.8 51.3 50.6 50.3 LONG(DEG W) 73.1 74.0 74.5 74.6 74.1 70.8 65.4 58.9 50.5 39.4 28.9 22.4 17.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 5 5 11 25 39 48 41 36 27 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 58 62 48 37 51 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 797 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 17. 18. 18. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -3. -7. -17. -29. -43. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. 19. 20. 9. 3. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. 0. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 15. 18. 40. 39. 22. 8. -8. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 25.6 73.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 10/20/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.35 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 51.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.33 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.36 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.30 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.25 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.66 0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 61.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.39 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 184.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 12.0% 7.2% 5.6% 3.8% 6.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.9% 2.7% 1.9% 1.3% 2.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 10/20/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 10/20/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 34 37 40 45 48 70 69 52 37 22 DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 38 43 46 68 67 50 35 20 DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 37 40 62 61 44 29 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 28 31 53 52 35 20 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT