* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 10/20/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 38 43 46 45 59 57 54 52 48 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 38 43 46 45 59 57 54 52 48 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 31 33 39 45 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 28 23 22 24 18 27 35 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 -5 -6 -5 -6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 225 225 214 203 206 214 193 186 176 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.7 27.8 26.3 25.5 17.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 155 151 146 136 121 115 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 137 139 136 131 126 123 112 107 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -54.1 -54.3 -53.6 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 60 60 57 55 58 61 55 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 13 13 13 11 11 29 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 96 87 84 78 74 84 166 243 291 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 24 39 70 40 63 130 85 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 14 12 12 2 -2 -17 -82 -82 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 640 700 747 767 707 677 619 542 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 9 8 8 16 24 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 59 52 29 33 35 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -3. -13. -20. -26. -31. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. 17. 17. 16. 15. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 16. 15. 29. 27. 24. 22. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 25.5 70.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 10/20/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.12 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 41.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.27 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.62 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.45 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.34 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.68 0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 18.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.82 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 127.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.81 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 13.5% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 4.2% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 5.9% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 10/20/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 10/20/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 36 38 43 46 45 59 57 54 52 48 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 36 41 44 43 57 55 52 50 46 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 36 39 38 52 50 47 45 41 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 30 29 43 41 38 36 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT