* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 10/19/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 35 37 42 45 45 38 27 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 35 37 42 45 45 38 27 25 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 29 30 31 34 35 29 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 34 31 26 20 20 19 33 43 65 112 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -1 0 -3 -4 -5 -2 10 14 -21 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 222 216 224 231 219 232 211 186 175 189 215 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.2 27.3 26.6 21.7 13.3 6.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 155 154 149 139 131 126 92 73 69 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 139 137 136 129 121 119 118 86 71 68 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 -54.3 -53.9 -53.0 -52.4 -53.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.1 -0.5 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 4 1 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 61 61 59 56 52 57 56 53 50 59 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 12 12 13 12 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 103 92 89 84 77 71 141 214 245 304 129 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 71 54 27 40 51 40 115 113 90 162 120 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 12 6 7 5 1 -11 -80 -113 -130 254 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 590 667 745 780 733 694 586 662 343 -14 -120 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 10 8 9 19 28 31 31 30 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 58 56 37 25 37 14 10 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 743 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 17. 18. 18. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -4. -11. -21. -40. -48. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 12. 15. 15. 8. -3. -14. -19. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 25.0 69.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 10/19/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.02 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 42.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.27 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.72 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.37 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.35 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.70 1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 18.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.81 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 115.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 13.2% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 4.5% 1.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 6.0% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 10/19/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 10/19/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 35 37 42 45 45 38 27 25 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 30 33 35 40 43 43 36 25 23 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 36 39 39 32 21 19 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 30 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT