* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 10/19/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 38 39 38 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 38 39 38 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 24 23 23 22 29 29 30 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 30 30 38 37 35 37 25 45 72 88 31 15 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 -2 0 -1 -1 -1 0 -15 -4 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 238 217 213 229 238 234 249 198 201 204 238 201 203 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.3 27.1 26.3 24.6 12.8 9.0 10.7 12.9 12.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 148 146 143 127 119 109 74 67 68 73 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 135 132 131 128 112 104 101 72 66 67 71 71 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -53.1 -53.6 -54.4 -55.4 -54.6 -54.1 -51.6 -49.8 -48.4 -48.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.4 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 3.7 3.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 64 63 63 62 56 52 64 76 53 53 53 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 12 13 15 13 13 12 9 14 21 17 850 MB ENV VOR 99 96 82 70 61 60 148 213 287 174 179 231 233 200 MB DIV 65 82 73 43 51 43 66 117 166 104 31 -2 36 700-850 TADV 14 10 4 0 1 5 3 -82 -34 116 -6 8 -35 LAND (KM) 582 669 771 889 971 684 393 323 -83 -215 -455 -63 32 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.6 26.5 27.6 29.0 31.6 34.2 38.3 45.6 51.0 49.4 45.0 45.7 LONG(DEG W) 68.6 68.6 68.4 68.5 68.8 70.1 71.9 70.6 67.8 69.7 74.3 68.3 59.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 13 14 14 16 31 37 19 22 31 32 HEAT CONTENT 46 31 17 14 15 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 17. 18. 19. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. -1. -8. -19. -37. -48. -53. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -8. -2. 6. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 14. 13. 3. -10. -11. -6. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 24.8 68.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 10/19/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.42 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.42 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.71 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 28.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 82.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 5.3% 1.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 5.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 10/19/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 10/19/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 33 38 39 38 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 36 37 36 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 31 32 31 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 24 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT