* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 10/19/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 27 29 32 31 30 24 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 27 29 32 31 30 24 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 23 22 21 21 21 21 22 21 25 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 34 34 32 30 35 24 24 22 33 42 47 80 120 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 4 2 0 0 -1 -1 -5 0 4 7 -14 SHEAR DIR 240 243 242 232 212 224 216 224 200 190 183 212 218 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.7 27.8 26.4 24.9 14.0 6.4 7.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 153 154 154 153 146 136 123 111 74 68 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 134 133 135 135 134 127 122 114 104 72 67 67 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -53.6 -54.2 -54.8 -54.9 -54.7 -54.3 -54.4 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -1.1 -1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 69 70 69 67 67 63 63 66 60 56 59 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 11 11 13 14 13 12 11 11 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 88 80 84 92 83 74 68 68 148 165 235 169 84 200 MB DIV 66 46 64 93 74 46 60 73 124 83 131 124 45 700-850 TADV 8 12 17 21 8 2 2 -3 -36 -152 -223 -27 -135 LAND (KM) 475 526 578 614 659 803 868 716 715 520 137 55 397 LAT (DEG N) 23.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 16 25 32 33 27 24 HEAT CONTENT 63 52 41 41 42 24 18 6 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -7. -12. -19. -28. -41. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -4. -5. -8. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -7. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 6. 5. -1. -12. -24. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.6 68.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 10/19/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 47.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.72 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.74 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 50.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 4.7% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 6.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 10/19/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 10/19/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 27 29 32 31 30 24 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 26 28 31 30 29 23 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 24 27 26 25 19 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 17 20 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT