* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 10/18/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 31 30 32 33 33 27 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 31 30 32 33 33 27 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 25 23 22 21 22 22 21 18 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 33 37 38 36 36 34 19 22 27 45 61 79 124 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 4 6 4 1 -2 -2 -3 -3 8 3 -17 SHEAR DIR 245 245 246 237 223 220 216 231 202 198 188 204 228 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 28.9 28.0 27.1 26.7 21.8 10.4 6.6 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 153 152 152 155 149 137 129 127 94 73 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 139 134 132 133 137 130 121 118 118 88 72 71 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -53.2 -53.8 -54.3 -54.7 -53.9 -52.7 -53.2 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 -0.2 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 7 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 65 64 65 64 63 52 49 53 49 48 53 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 11 13 13 11 9 9 8 11 850 MB ENV VOR 82 89 78 82 86 72 80 59 120 184 173 224 119 200 MB DIV 76 64 51 65 88 31 52 26 91 86 99 160 59 700-850 TADV 9 11 19 19 17 15 5 -1 -20 -93 -123 -136 -99 LAND (KM) 456 533 611 661 715 777 663 684 577 679 331 7 407 LAT (DEG N) 23.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 7 7 10 8 12 20 28 35 43 44 HEAT CONTENT 78 58 39 36 34 23 36 8 3 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 19. 22. 24. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -10. -14. -21. -31. -44. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. -1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -6. -9. -10. -12. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 2. 3. 3. -3. -14. -28. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.7 68.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 10/18/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 49.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.32 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.60 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.70 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 26.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.74 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 78.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 2.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 10/18/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 10/18/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 31 31 30 32 33 33 27 16 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 29 28 30 31 31 25 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 25 27 28 28 22 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 19 21 22 22 16 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT